Sort of. He says “Like the Ministry of Truth, it appears that Apple is deliberately attempting to usurp the meaning of the word Flash in the computing industry and redefine it.” which isn’t totally accurate. The thing is, “flash”, in a computer context, already has multiple meanings. Ever heard of “flashing your BIOS”? What Steve Jobs is (rightfully, in my mind) trying to do is remind people of that fact. Why should Adobe get to be the sole owners of the word “Flash”? 

The fact is, Flash is on its way out. Every single review I’ve read for the just-released Samsung Galaxy Tab says, at one point or another, that web browsing is harmed by the presence of Adobe Flash. Here are just a couple examples:

• “In all cases, [Flash content] slowed the browser down.” — Walt Mossberg
• “The browser is miserable, at least when Flash is enabled. It goes catatonic, scrolling is laggy, and it can get laughably bad.” — Gizmodo

So, here’s how the next 2-3 years will go:

Apple will continue to not support Flash on its iOS devices. The also just started shipping the new MacBook Air without Flash. I imagine all of their products will gain this “feature” as they’re revised. Flash will maintain a presence on most desktop computers, though it may drop some, like maybe to 75% or so. However, mobile use of the Web is climbing fast. Companies that currently depend heavily on Flash (like for their front page or for persistent navigational elements) will eventually be unable to ignore their Flash-less visitors anymore and they’ll do one of two things:

1. They’ll start maintaining two versions of their sites so that Flash-less visitors (you know, people with money to blow on web tablets and MacBook Airs) get a good experience, or
2. They’ll realize that’s a stupid, money-wasting idea and they’ll scrap Flash altogether except where it’s essential

Pretty soon you’ll see the “chicken and egg” effect being replaced by the “snowball” effect. Apple (with some help from Adobe themselves, in the form of the craptastic Flash performance we’re seeing so far on mobile devices) has taken care of the chickens and the eggs so now it’s just a matter of waiting for the snowball to grow. Flash won’t go away, but it won’t continue to dominate, and you’ll see fewer and fewer “missing plug-in” boxes on your iPad as the years go by.